Islamabad: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has triggered concern in Pakistan, which relies on rivers flowing from India to sustain its agriculture and economy. Blaming Pakistan based groups for Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left many civilians dead, India suspended the treaty this year.
However, many analysts believe that the decision is based on Indian ambition to expand its water infrastructure. Over the past few years, India has accelerated the construction of run-of-river hydropower projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle and is planning large reservoirs and canal systems on western rivers which flow into Pakistan.
What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Signed on September 19, 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was brokered by the World Bank and signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan in Karachi. It came into effect on April 1, 1960.
The treaty allocates Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, while Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. Under the treaty, India can use limited waters from the western rivers for domestic needs, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects, but under strict technical conditions.
Despite multiple wars and decades of tension, the treaty has remained largely intact for over sixty years.
Can India Legally Suspend or Withdraw from the Treaty?
No, not unilaterally. The treaty has no exit clause, and can only be altered or terminated by mutual agreement between India and Pakistan. Under international law, namely the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a country can attempt to withdraw if there is a material breach or a fundamental change in circumstances, but even then, it must give 12 months notice and be face legal scrutiny. Analysts believe India’s action could be best described as a political suspension, not a legally binding withdrawal.
What Did The Hague Court Say?
On June 27, 2025, the Court of Arbitration constituted under the Indus Waters Treaty unanimously ruled that the treaty remains in force and that neither party can unilaterally block the dispute resolution process. It further said that India’s unilateral decision to place the treaty “in abeyance” has no effect on the ongoing legal proceedings initiated by Pakistan.
What Are the Implications for Pakistan?
Pakistan depends on the Indus Basin for most of its irrigation and food production. Suspension of data sharing could affect flood forecasts and seasonal crop planning. Past maintenance activities on Indian dams have already led to 60–90% drops in river flows during dry months. Islamabad sees any move to block or reduce water as a serious threat that could heighten tensions.
The treaty was meant to keep water out of politics. India's move challenges that principle.
By Atif Khan.
Atif Khan is an Islamabad based journalist.
Title Image: Ayub Khan and Nehru: Courtesy - Vintage Pakistan
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