Return of Afghans sparks fears of increase in terrorism

Graphic by Chatly.ai

KABUL, 25 Sept 2025: A significant influx of millions of Afghan migrants, compelled to return to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Iran, is raising alarm among diplomatic and security officials about the potential escalation of Islamic State militancy in the region.

According to news wire AFP since January, approximately 2.6 million Afghans have returned, including those who had lived abroad for decades and others stepping into Afghanistan for the first time. 

Experts warn that this demographic shift could provide fertile ground for recruitment by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a dangerous jihadist group with a presence in eastern Afghanistan.

Hans-Jakob Schindler, former UN coordinator for monitoring militant groups, noted, 

"The risk that Islamic State Khorasan sees these newly arrived Afghans as a potential recruitment pool is high." Although security has improved following the Taliban's 2021 takeover, ISKP continues to carry out attacks that threaten both Taliban authority and regional stability.

The UN has highlighted Afghanistan's permissive environment for terrorist groups, identifying ISKP’s approximately 2,000 fighters as the most serious threat. While other groups like the Pakistani Taliban maintain larger forces, their focus remains primarily within Pakistan. Conversely, ISKP targets religious minorities, government officials, and regional security.

Afghanistan four-year-old rulers Taliban have in the past asserted that their land is clear of all terrorist organisations presence. They have specifically targeted ISIS Khurasan and weakened it to a large extent, but experts believe it still lurks around. 

The Afghan migrants face severe hardships upon return, with many lacking jobs, shelter, and access to basic services. This vulnerability, coupled with pervasive poverty—nearly half of Afghanistan’s population lives below the poverty line—creates conditions that extremist groups can exploit.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees predicts up to four million Afghans could return by year-end, intensifying the risk of recruitment by militant factions capitalizing on economic necessity and social marginalization.

Regional powers remain vigilant, with Russia reporting around 23,000 fighters from various militant groups in Afghanistan, including ISKP, which reportedly maintains training camps in the east and north of the country. Moscow’s recognition of the Taliban government underscores hopes for enhanced regional security cooperation in counterterrorism efforts.

Experts emphasize that building a dignified future for returnees, supported by adequate foreign aid, is critical to halting the recruitment surge. However, humanitarian efforts have been constrained by funding cuts in recent years, complicating the challenge of stabilizing Afghanistan amidst this complex security threat.

This growing crisis highlights the urgent need for coordinated international attention to mitigate the risks posed by the mass return of vulnerable populations to a fragile and volatile Afghanistan.