World Bank projects steady 3% GDP growth for Pakistan in 2026


ISLAMABAD, Nov 7, 2025: The World Bank's Pakistan Development Update for October 2025 says the economy grew by 3.0% in the fiscal year ending June 2025, up from 2.6% the previous year, driven by industrial and service sectors expansion.

However, the agricultural sector was affected by adverse weather and pest issues alongside devastating floods, which will dampen growth prospects in the short term.

The report projects a 3.0% GDP growth for FY 2026, slightly above earlier estimates of 2.6%, due to revised data showing smaller flood impacts on agriculture. Inflation was contained through fiscal tightening and monetary policies, helping stabilize the economy despite global and domestic hurdles.

Poverty declined modestly to 22.2% in FY 2025 from 25.3% the year before, aided by growth in construction and logistics sectors and lower food inflation. Still, vulnerabilities remain, particularly in rural areas with low agricultural growth and high job informality in key sectors.

The World Bank emphasizes the necessity of sustained reforms to boost inclusive growth, job creation, and social safety nets. It also highlights Pakistan’s new five-year tariff reform plan aiming to boost exports and economic resilience.

Pakistan Development Update Highlights:

  • Economy grew 3.0% in FY 2025, an improvement over 2.6% the previous year.
  • GDP growth projected at 3.0% for FY 2026 despite flood impacts.
  • Inflation moderated due to fiscal and monetary measures.
  • Poverty rate modestly reduced to 22.2%.
  • Agriculture underperformed due to floods and pests.
  • Industrial and service sectors showed stronger growth.
  • Floods caused human and economic losses, affecting recovery.
  • New tariff reform plan aims to reduce tariffs by half over 5 years.
  • Continued reforms critical for stability, job creation, and social protection.

This update underscores the delicate balance Pakistan faces in maintaining growth momentum while addressing vulnerabilities from natural disasters and global uncertainties.

The government's focus on structural reforms and economic stabilization is crucial for fostering sustainable development and resilience.

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