BEIJING, May 8, 2025: As US President Donald Trump prepares to travel to China on May 14-15 for a highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing is approaching the summit with cautious optimism and carefully calibrated expectations.
The visit, delayed earlier because of the Iran conflict, comes at a moment when relations between the world’s two largest economies remain strained by trade disputes, geopolitical rivalry, and disagreements over global security issues.
Chinese officials are unlikely to expect a dramatic breakthrough. Instead, analysts believe Beijing is focusing on securing limited but meaningful gains that could stabilize ties and prevent further deterioration in relations. While China would ideally prefer a broader reset in relations with Washington, experts say its leadership understands that Trump’s unpredictable negotiating style makes sweeping agreements difficult.
According to Benjamin Ho of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Beijing’s strategy is rooted in realism. Chinese policymakers know that the current climate of mistrust between the two countries cannot be erased quickly, particularly after years of escalating economic confrontation.
The trade war remains the central issue hanging over the summit. Over the past few years, Washington imposed tariffs as high as 145 percent on many Chinese goods, while Beijing retaliated with its own measures. Although tensions eased somewhat after Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year trade truce in October, China’s primary objective now appears to be extending that arrangement and preventing another spiral of economic escalation.
Yue Su from the Economist Intelligence Unit said Beijing would likely settle for practical and targeted outcomes rather than sweeping concessions. China hopes Trump will follow through on promises of engagement and produce at least a few concrete policy outcomes during the summit. Even modest tariff reductions from Washington could allow Beijing to justify scaling back some of its own tariffs or export restrictions.
However, trade will not be the only sensitive topic on the table. The ongoing Iran conflict has added a new layer of tension to US-China relations. Analysts say the issue will inevitably arise during talks between Trump and Xi, especially after Washington accused Beijing of maintaining close economic ties with Tehran.
Lizzi Lee from the Asia Society Policy Institute noted that the United States has already increased pressure ahead of the summit by scrutinizing China’s commercial relationship with Iran. Trump warned last month that Chinese products could face an additional 50 percent tariff if Beijing provided military assistance to Tehran.
China has tried to balance its position carefully. While Beijing condemned US-Israeli strikes on Iran as illegal and remains a close partner of Tehran, it has also criticized Iranian attacks on Gulf states and called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route. Chinese officials appear determined to avoid being drawn too deeply into the conflict while resisting US pressure to take a stronger stance against either Iran or Russia.
For Beijing, another major priority is preventing the Iran issue from spilling over into broader trade negotiations. Analysts say Chinese leaders want to avoid new US tariffs linked to Iran-related trade that could complicate an already fragile relationship.
Despite these challenges, China enters the summit with several powerful bargaining tools. Among the most significant are rare earth minerals, which are essential for manufacturing advanced technologies ranging from smartphones and semiconductors to electric vehicles and military systems. China dominates nearly every stage of the rare earth supply chain, from mining and refining to processing and technological innovation, giving Beijing substantial leverage in negotiations.
Joe Mazur of Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China said Trump has repeatedly demonstrated concern about US dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies. According to Mazur, this is one area where Washington still lacks a strong alternative strategy.
China may also attempt to create goodwill before the summit through symbolic economic gestures, such as increasing purchases of American agricultural goods or placing new orders for Boeing aircraft. Analysts believe Beijing hopes these “quick wins” could create a more positive atmosphere before discussions move toward more contentious issues like technology restrictions, investment controls, and strategic competition.
Over the past several years, China has also quietly prepared for prolonged instability in relations with the United States. Beijing has diversified trade toward Southeast Asia and countries across the Global South while strengthening regional diplomatic partnerships. At the same time, Chinese authorities have expanded their legal and regulatory tools to counter foreign pressure.
According to analysts, Beijing’s recent decision to block Meta from acquiring AI startup Manus reflects a broader strategy of tightening regulatory control over strategic sectors. Yet many of China’s long-term economic policies — including reducing dependence on Western technology, expanding renewable energy infrastructure, and pursuing industrial self-sufficiency — began well before Trump’s return to office.
Mazur argued that even an exceptionally successful summit is unlikely to alter China’s long-term strategic direction. Beijing’s effort to “America-proof” its economy, he said, will continue regardless of short-term diplomatic improvements.
Still, Chinese officials appear quietly confident going into the talks. Analysts say Beijing believes it is better positioned than during Trump’s first term to withstand economic and political pressure. Chinese leaders also see themselves as more comfortable pursuing a long-term strategy than Trump, who faces mounting domestic political pressure ahead of US midterm elections.
Meanwhile, the possibility of a future visit to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin adds another geopolitical dimension to the situation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently indicated that such a visit could take place later this year. Analysts say a closely timed Putin visit after Trump’s trip would send a clear message that improved US-China dialogue will not weaken Beijing’s strategic partnership with Moscow.
As global tensions continue to reshape international politics, Trump’s upcoming visit to China is less likely to produce dramatic breakthroughs than to test whether both sides can manage competition without allowing it to slide into deeper confrontation.
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