What was once an unlikely relationship between a former
occupier and an Islamist movement that fought Soviet forces during the 1980s
has evolved into a pragmatic partnership shaped by mutual interests rather than
ideology.
The latest signs of this transformation emerged when Moscow
formally removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations in April
2025 and later became the first country to officially recognise the Taliban
government.
Neither Russia nor the Afghan side shared details of the military technical agreement, but to smooth fears among some of the regional powers, Afghanistan defence minister Maulvi Mohammad Yaqoob was quick in stating that signing a military-technical agreement with Moscow is not aimed against any country, but is intended to strengthen Afghanistan’s defense and security.
According to a statement shared by Islamic Emirate spokesman Mawlawi Zabihullah Mujahid, the Defense Minister said that Afghanistan is also open to discussing similar agreements with other countries that may be interested in cooperation.
Mr. Mujahid described concerns regarding the agreement as unfounded, emphasizing that the purpose of such cooperation is to support the country’s defense capabilities and national security.
In May 2026, Russian and Taliban officials reportedly signed
a military cooperation agreement, underscoring a deepening security
relationship. These developments raise an important question: why is Russia
investing so heavily in ties with a group it once considered an enemy?
Afghan officials claim trade relations between Afghanistan
and Russia have witnessed significant progress over the past year, with the
total volume of trade between the two countries nearly doubling. According to
the latest figures released by the Afghan Ministry of Industry and Commerce,
the value of bilateral trade increased from $296 million in 2024 to $590
million in 2025, reflecting a rapid expansion in economic cooperation between
the two nations.
Security
For Moscow, Afghanistan is no longer viewed as a source of
Taliban-inspired extremism but as a frontline in the fight against the Islamic
State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). The Kremlin increasingly sees ISIS-K as the
most dangerous militant threat emanating from Afghanistan.
This perception intensified after the March 2024 Crocus City
Hall attack near Moscow, which Russian authorities linked to ISIS-K. Since
then, Russian officials have repeatedly praised the Taliban's campaign against
the group.
From Moscow's perspective, the Taliban controls the
territory, possesses intelligence networks inside Afghanistan, and shares an
interest in suppressing ISIS-K, which challenges both Taliban authority and
Russian security.
Russian officials now openly describe the Taliban as a
partner in counterterrorism rather than a threat. Security cooperation
therefore serves a practical purpose: preventing instability from spreading
into Central Asia and ultimately into Russia itself.
Regional influence
The collapse of the Western-backed Afghan government created
a strategic vacuum. While the United States and its allies reduced their
presence, regional powers moved quickly to establish relationships with the
Taliban administration. Russia does not want to be excluded from shaping
Afghanistan's future, particularly in a region it has historically regarded as
part of its strategic sphere of influence.
Maintaining close ties with Kabul also strengthens Moscow's
role in Central Asian security affairs. Russia remains a key security guarantor
for several former Soviet republics, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. By
engaging directly with the Taliban, Moscow hopes to manage cross-border threats
before they destabilise neighbouring states. This allows Russia to present
itself as an indispensable regional power broker despite the challenges posed
by the war in Ukraine.
Economic interests also play an increasingly important role.
Afghanistan possesses substantial untapped mineral
resources, including copper, lithium, rare earth elements, and other strategic
minerals critical for modern industries. Although Afghanistan's security
environment remains challenging, Russian policymakers recognise the long-term
economic potential of these resources. Closer political and military relations
improve the prospects for Russian investment in mining, infrastructure,
transport corridors, and energy projects.
Furthermore, Moscow views Afghanistan as part of broader
Eurasian connectivity initiatives. Improved stability could eventually
facilitate trade routes linking South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia. Such
projects align with Moscow's ambition to strengthen economic networks that
bypass Western influence and sanctions.
Russia's deepening engagement with the Taliban must also be
understood in the context of its broader confrontation with the West.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has sought to
expand relations with non-Western governments and movements willing to engage
with it despite Western pressure. The Taliban, isolated internationally and
eager for diplomatic legitimacy, represents a willing partner. For Russia,
recognition of the Taliban demonstrates an independent foreign policy that is
not constrained by Western preferences. For the Taliban, Russian recognition
offers international credibility and helps break diplomatic isolation.
This convergence of interests explains why both sides have
steadily upgraded their relationship despite their troubled history.
However, Moscow's strategy carries significant risks.
The Taliban remains internationally controversial because of
its restrictions on women, limitations on political freedoms, and human rights
record. Most countries continue to withhold formal recognition. By embracing
the Taliban, Russia risks criticism that it is prioritising strategic interests
over international norms.
There is also uncertainty about Afghanistan's long-term
stability. While the Taliban has consolidated power, economic hardship,
internal factionalism, and the continued presence of extremist groups could
undermine the country's security environment. If instability worsens, Russia
could find itself associated with a government unable to deliver the stability
Moscow seeks.
Nevertheless, current Russian policy suggests that the
Kremlin believes engagement is preferable to isolation. Russian officials
increasingly argue that the Taliban is a political reality that cannot be
ignored. Rather than attempting to change the regime, Moscow has chosen to work
with it.
Ultimately, Russia's deepening military ties with the
Taliban are not the product of ideological alignment but geopolitical
pragmatism. Counterterrorism cooperation, regional influence, economic
opportunities, and strategic competition with the West have all pushed Moscow
toward a closer partnership with Afghanistan's rulers. Whether this approach
produces long-term stability remains uncertain, but it clearly reflects a
broader transformation in Eurasian geopolitics—one in which former enemies are
becoming strategic partners.
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